May 09, 2008
BREAKING: Desperate Gordo tries to cherrypick Dem opponent
Last night Gordon Smith launched a false negative ad attacking Jeff Merkley, sending a clear message that Smith is cheering for Steve Novick to win the Democratic primary. Merkley will be joined by Democratic leaders to respond directly to Smith TODAY at the DemoForum at Kwan's Cuisine, 835 Commercial St. SE, Salem at noon.
Why is Gordon Smith attacking Jeff Merkley alone this time rather than both Merkley and Novick like his last ad?
I don't think there's any doubt but that they've been doing their own polling and know that Merkley is pulling away from Novick. Otherwise why would they bother to spend the money on this new ad? Why not make it generic like the last one? Because of their internal polling!
Posted by Kevin at 01:02 PM | Permalink |
May 08, 2008
Reich-wing RINO WATCH endorses Novick
RINO WATCH endorses the "Hook".
It seems they were impressed by Novick's penchant for calling other Democrats names:
The "Hook" has it right....*Hillary Clinton --- "coward" & "traitress"
*Darlene Hooley --- the "lie"
*Barack Hussein Obama" --- "nothing to like" & a "special-interest fraud"
I like the "Hook".....
But it's a primary only endorsement. LOL
Posted by Kevin at 11:31 PM | Permalink |
May 07, 2008
Rush to Destruction
Gawd, I hate Rush Limbaugh. His snide approach to politics has become so stomach-turning and divisive to me that I cannot believe I actually used to listen to him. And it's not just his attitude about Barack Obama that gets to me, his response earlier this week to Hillary Clinton's joke that he had a crush on her was shockingly spiteful. He's an ugly man who is fostering the ugliness in a lot of Americans. For his sake, he had better hope that Hell is a figment of the imagination.
Posted by Becky at 05:54 PM | Permalink |
Steve Novick is no Mark Hatfield!
There's an interesting post by Novick supporter Leslie Carlson over at Blue Oregon called Oregon: we're for mavericks In it Leslie cites former Governor and Senator Mark Hatfield in trying to make the case that Oregonians are going to vote for Steve Novick because he too is a "maverick."
As a Merkley supporter I avoided trying to counter her argument, largely because she'd written an interesting post which made what seems to be a reasonable argument. But I've been a Hatfield fan for several decades and after several commenters talked about Hatfield I decided to chime in. Here's what I said:
About Hatfield...Steve Novick may be a type of "maverick," but he's certainly not the type that Oregonians repeatedly elected in Mark Hatfield. In fact, it seems to me that Jeff Merkley is significantly more like Mark Hatfield than Steve Novick ever has been. Which shouldn't surprise anyone. Afterall, he did intern for Hatfield and to some extent was mentored by Hatfield.Jeff Merkley referenced his internship with Sen. Hatfield at a fundraiser with Max Cleland, Jim Rassman and Barbara Roberts a few days ago.
He spoke about the Presidential Fellowship he won and how he won it. Apparently there were half a dozen openings and a dozen or so candidates who had made it to the final stage - getting grilled by a roomfull of Flag Officers (Generals and Admirals).
When it was Jeff's turn an officer bluntly asked him why they should pick him when he'd interned for Hatfield and Hatfield routinely voted against military appropriations Bills.
Demonstrating early his ability to think on his feet and turn a seeming negative into a positive, Jeff responded with the suggestion that he would bring a fresh perspective which was lacking in the Pentagon and that it would contribute to more balanced analysis which would be more useful to the Flag Officers than not having it.
Merkley walked out of there with a Presidential Fellowship and did it in the finest tradition of Senator Hatfield.
Steve Novick is no Hatfield. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Where Novick uses derogatory and demeaning language to describe those he disagrees with, Hatfield was scrupulously civil and relied upon the strength of both his convictions and of his argument and then let the chips fall where they may. The only trait they really share is as contrarians. Other than that Novick is essentially the anti-Hatfield.
Just read how Senator Paul Sarbane (D-MD) described Hatfield at the CRC dedication in 2004:
He lauded Hatfield's "civility, vision, intelligence and the way he preferred reasoned discourse to invective...I served with him for 20 years and it was a joy to work with him. Mark Hatfield brought a dignity, indeed a nobility to our politics. He set a very high standard of public service. Mark," he said, turning to Hatfield, "we'll do our very best to measure up to your example."Novick is no Mark Hatfield!
Examples of why are below the fold
Continue reading "Steve Novick is no Mark Hatfield!"
Posted by Kevin at 03:20 PM | Permalink |
Politicker's Pindell unwittingly shows why Novick is losing
The national Politicker site has a newish blogger named James Pindell who is doing a segment called the Pindell Report. Pindell says that he'll be using "the resources of Politicker's reporting in states to help tell the national political story." So far he's not doing such a great job of getting it right.
Case in point: The newest edition of the Pindell Report suggests (in the form of a question) that Obama's strong showing through April was responsible for the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) downgrading Oregon to its 2nd tier of targeted states. He then goes on to attempt an argument in support of his conclusion. Only thing is... he eschews supporting data in favor of spinning a fanciful tale.
What happened in Oregon in April? A SurveyUSA poll was released and much ballyhooed in Oregon, showing Steve Novick ahead of all challengers at 23% and Jeff Merkley lagging behind at 11%. The very next day the DSCC downgraded Oregon from 1st tier to 2nd tier.
But rather than accept such a clear cause & effect explanation for the DSCC's action, Pindell decided yesterday that somehow Obama must be responsible. He then went on to suggest that Novick is the one who will benefit from Obama's popularity in Oregon, citing newly registered 18-24 year old voters in particular.
If he wants to be taken seriously Pindell ought to have checked the SurveyUSA poll released this last Friday May 2nd before exposing his ignorance in a published report. Not only has Merkley surged in just three weeks to erase Novick's lead in the polls (casting doubt on the veracity of the earlier poll, but that's a side issue), the poll's cross-tab data reveals that Merkley's support among 18-34 year olds nearly tripled. Novick growth with that group less than doubled. So not only is Merkley surging overall, he's surging among the very demographic that Pindell cited.
But that's actually not even the worst of it for Pindell. Contrary to his earlier claim that he'd be using "the resources of Politicker's reporting in states to help tell the national political story," he didn't check with PolitickerOR's post from this past Sunday. If he had then he'd have noticed this buried gem in a piece about Merkley's new ad: "some insiders – maybe even most of them – believe that Republican incumbent Gordon Smith would rather face Novick in the general election." Which really just stated the obvious.
Posted by Kevin at 08:27 AM | Permalink |
May 06, 2008
Gingrich Discovers "Catastrophic Collapse of Trust"
Well, it's about time someone noticed. Newt Gingrich has called an emergency meeting of House Republicans to discuss Americans' "catastrophic collapse of trust in Republicans." To woo the flock back into the fold, Gingrich has outlined nine acts of “real change” he wants Republican leaders to consider, including a gas tax holiday and a moratorium on earmarks.
Michael Steel, a Boehner spokesman, said, “Leader Boehner certainly agrees - and has said repeatedly -- that Republicans can only succeed this year by being agents of change and reform. The American people know that Washington is broken, and we have to convince them that we can fix it.”
I am reminded of the words of Jeff Spicoli, after he and star football player "Jefferson's" little brother totaled Jefferson's hot new car:
"Relax, all right? My old man is a television repairman, he's got this ultimate set of tools. I can fix it."
No, you can't.
The car is destroyed, and now that it's time to be held accountable for the results of their reckless joy-ride, the Republicans are panicking. The temporary bandaid solutions Gingrich is proposing (a gas tax holiday and earmark moratorium) will only delay the inevitable pain. I hope Republican voters aren't brain-dead enough to believe otherwise.
Posted by Becky at 11:48 AM | Permalink |
May 04, 2008
UNCOUNTED in Oregon
(editor's note: the following was shamelessly copied more or less verbatim from an email sent out by the PDA. Some editing was done because I thought a slightly different layout would work better.)
Uncounted is a must-see film, featuring PDA Board Member Rep. John Conyers and PDA-endorsed Congressional Candidate Clint Curtis. This is a great chance to see Uncounted with the filmmaker.
Oregon's PDA team is working with the filmmakers who created UNCOUNTED, an explosive new documentary that shows how the election fraud that changed the outcome of the 2004 election led to even greater fraud in 2006--and now looms as an unbridled threat to the outcome of the 2008 election.
See the film, then participate in a Q&A session with the filmmaker, David Earnhardt:
- TOMORROW IN PORTLAND, OR -- Cinema 21
Monday, May 5, 2008 at 7pm
Sponsored by: Progressive Democrats of America, Alliance for Democracy, and Oregon Voter Rights Coalition - CORVALLIS, OR -- Darkside Cinema
Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 7pm
Sponsored by: Progressive Democrats of America and Linn-Benton Pacific Green Party
- EUGENE, OR -- Bijou Arts Cinema
Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 6:45pm & 9pm
Sponsored by: Truth in Voting and Progressive Democrats of America - SALEM, OR / Salem Progressive Film Series -- Grand Theater
Thursday, May 8, 2008 at 7pm
Continue reading "UNCOUNTED in Oregon"
Posted by Kevin at 06:41 PM | Permalink |
140K strong Humane Society endorses Merkley!
(previously posted at Blue Oregon)
The Humane Society endorsed Jeff Merkley today. He's their only endorsement in Oregon and they only made two other Primary Election endorsements this year - Kucinich in Ohio and Lautenberg in New Jersey.
Now this is an endorsement which intrigues me. Mostly because either I've never noticed their endorsements before or I just never thought of The Humane Society as the endorsing kind of organization. Either way, this one came out of the blue for me.
Perhaps this explanation from their website is why:
HSLF is a nonpartisan organization that evaluates candidates based only on a single criterion: where they stand on animal welfare. HSLF does not judge candidates based on party affiliation or any other issue.
But it turns out that the HSLF does endorse General Election candidates in most states. In 2006 they endorsed (by my count) 447 candidates in 45 states, including our own Representatives Wu, Blumenauer, DeFazio and Hooley - all of whom won their respective races. This too is interesting to me because in the FAQ section of the HSLF's website they note that a candidate's "chances for winning the seat" is part of the endorsement criteria. Which, frankly, understates the HSLF's emphasis on endorsing winning candidates.
Doing a bit of rudimentary math - 447 endorsees, 44 of whom lost - yields a winning ratio for the 2006 HSLF endorsee slate of over 90%.
I don't know of any other endorsing entity which boasts that high of a win ratio for endorsees, do you?
Continue reading "140K strong Humane Society endorses Merkley!"
Posted by Kevin at 12:05 PM | Permalink |
May 01, 2008
New Poll - surging Merkley ties Novick
SurveyUSA just released the latest poll commissioned by KATU. Merkley and Novick are statistically tied, according to SurveyUSA's analysis. Novick got 30% and Merkley got 28% with the margin of error being 3.9%. Here's SurveyUSA's own analysis:
Oregon U.S. Senate Primary: Merkley Support Nearly Triples, Now Tied with Novick -- In a Democratic Primary in Oregon for United States Senate today, 05/01/2008, three weeks till votes are counted, attorney Steve Novick and state House Speaker Jeff Merkley tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV Portland. Novick today gets 30%, Merkley 28%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error. 4 other candidates in single digits. 26% of voters say they are undecided, or will vote for some other unnamed candidate. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 04/07/08, Novick is up 7 points, Merkley is up 16 points. Among women, Merkley's support has tripled and he now leads Novick 30% to 25%. Among men, Novick is up 7, Merkley is up 8. Among Pro-Life voters, Merkely's support has quadrupled. Among voters age 50+, Merkley had trailed Novick by 12, now tied. As evidence of how closely matched and fiercely fought the contest now is: Among Conservatives, the two are tied. Among Moderates, the two are tied. Among Liberals, the two are tied.
I don't know what to make of the quadrupled support among pro-life voters except that it seems like it must be a reflection of Merkley's strong veteran support.
The tripled support among women makes sense. The Merkley campaign specifically targeted women with their first TV ad, and did it by highlighting his strong support for abortion rights. Which is why I'm left to speculate about the pro-life voter surge too.
Nits to pick are easy to find. Perhaps the biggest one is that just 650 of the 1800 people surveyed are deemed likely to vote according to SurveyUSA's own analysis. Also, 194 of those surveyed weren't registered to vote when they were surveyed and may have missed the deadline to register which fell smack in the middle of the three-day survey.
Posted by Kevin at 06:46 PM | Permalink |
Max Cleland and Jeff Merkley - YouTube style
Posted by Kevin at 05:57 PM | Permalink |
April 30, 2008
Max Cleland, Barbara Roberts & Jeff Merkley - what a trio!
I attended the fundraiser after Cleland and Merkley's Town Hall at PSU. Apparently Jim Rassman - the vet who John Kerry saved in Vietnam - participated in the Town Hall too.
All three of them were at the fundraiser along with former Governor Barbara Roberts and all of them addressed the packed crowd.
Jeff mentioned a very sobering statistic in his address. Did you know that we lose more soldiers and veterans each day from suicide right here in America than are killed in Iraq? It is absolutely unconscionable the way that Bush and the GOP have mistreated veteransI All of the "rah, rah, hooray for the troops" rhetoric dissipates into nothing once those soldiers have been used up and/or badly injured.
Jeff called for ending combat missions and getting soldiers off of patrols immediately and then withdrawing all American forces in a 6 to 12 month timeframe. No bases to be kept and staffed. He wants us out... completely out except for the ambassadorial staff. He also called for getting every single American contractor out of there ASAP and hiring Iraqi's to do those jobs instead.
I'm going to quote Sarah Lane's excellent DKos diary here because she was there too, had the wisdom to take notes and phrased it better than I could anyway:
Merkley went on to talk about the importance of taking care of our Veterans when they come home from service. Merkley said, "We need to fight for them when they come home just as they have fought for us." Merkley said that Veterans should be able to collect retirement and disability at the same time. He spoke a lot about the need to address the mental health issues soldiers are faced with. He said that the high rate of suicides among our soldiers and reservists were, "Reflective of not helping them enough." Merkley called for fully funding the VA, and said, "Reservists should have full access to Veterans rights." Merkley also pledged to fight for a 21st Century G.I. bill. These comments got quite a round of applause from the audience, many of whom were Veterans.
A bunch of us Oregon bloggers who support Jeff Merkley got together and decided that we wanted to do our bit to help get Jeff elected. We recognize that if nothing changes, nothing changes. The stakes are just too high to not go the extra mile. So I may not be able to afford to buy the latest gadget as soon as I'd wanted or go out to restaurants as often as I'd like for a while. I say, "big deal!" There are much more important things that I can do for my self, my children, my state and my country than spend money on things that just aren't important in the grand scheme of things, ya know?
Help me send "the real deal," as Max Cleland called him, to the United States Senate where he WILL do right by our service men and women, both active and out-of-uniform.
Posted by Kevin at 07:07 PM | Permalink |
