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October 24, 2004

All the little chicks with the crimson lips go "Cleveland Rocks!"

Livin in sin with a safety pin go "Cleveland Rocks!"

Ohio has been talked about as the lynchpin of the Presidential race for most of the campaign season. But according to Bush's schedule..Ohio appears to be ceded to Kerry.

Todd at Centerfield thinks Bush can win fairly easily without Ohio. The comments on the thread from self-confessed political campaign guy Tully concur with Todd.

But Kos has been doing the math too and finds Bush coming up short:

Note Bush's upcoming schedule -- lots of Iowa, NM and Wisconsin. It increasingly looks like Bush will end up camping out in Wisconsin the last week of the election. Because without Wisconsin, he can't pull it off. (And here I am assuming that MN is increasingly out of reach -- a fact confirmed by Bush's upcoming travel schedule.)

The map above (see link at Kos--) puts the EV count at 262 Kerry, 254 Bush. NM and IA, combined, would not offset a Kerry victory in WI. Bush needs both Wisconsin and either Iowa or New Mexico. Wisconsin and NM, in this scenario, gives us the dreaded 269-269 tie that would send matters to the House of Representatives and a likely Bush victory.

Latest Zogby polling has Bush leading in Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico. And what I don't think Todd and Tully have taken into account is Bush losing Colorado (9 electoral votes), where he is currently polling four points down to Kerry.

And then there's Florida...where the last four polls are thus:

Miami-Herald
10/19-10/21, 800 LV's, MoE 3.5
Kerry 46
Bush 46

Research 2000
10/18-10/21, 600 LV's, MoE 4
Kerry 48
Bush 47

Quinnipiac
10/15-10/19, 808 LV's, MoE 3.5
Bush 48
Kerry 47

Survey USA
10/15-10/17, 601 LV's, MoE 4.1
Kerry 50
Bush 49

If Kerry wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida AND Colorado (Kerry just made Arkansas competitive too), there's no way Bush can win.

Posted by Carla at October 24, 2004 06:16 PM