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January 10, 2005

Bush's 15 minutes of mandate...

...may be up:

Advocating changes in Social Security, particularly benefit cuts, can backfire. Bush won't face voters again, but most members of Congress will. They are concerned about more than the prospect of reduced benefits. Many oppose driving the federal debt and budget deficit higher. Setting up the bureaucracy to handle personal retirement accounts could cost up to $2 trillion over a decade.

Bush faces other obstacles:

• Not everyone thinks Social Security is in crisis. "Medicare is a bigger problem, but Social Security is easier to deal with," John says.

• Opponents are powerful. The AARP, which has 35 million members ages 50 and older, has begun a $5 million ad campaign saying personal accounts amount to gambling with retirement savings. AARP says it may spend far more this year.

Even Bush ally Tom Donohue, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce says his group has urged the White House to go slowly on Social Security and first try to complete easier legislative goals.

"A mandate lasts 15 minutes in this town," Donohue says.

• Democrats are fairly united in opposition, and there are fewer of the sort of moderate Democrats Bush might be able to recruit.

• Although Bush says people who are already retired would not see their benefits changed, Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg says polls find only 53% of seniors favor private accounts. They also are more likely to vote than any other age group.

Another factor will be how hard he works for the plan. He battled for tax cuts and education accountability in 2001 and won passage of both. But he didn't work as hard for energy legislation or limits on liability lawsuits. Neither became law.

Bush "is wagering a lot," says Michael Tanner of the libertarian Cato Institute. "But success would make him the Republican equivalent of FDR: He's done war and remade the nation's domestic agenda."

My guess is that once Bush actually comes up with the specifics for the plan they'll be firing up the propaganda machines on talk radio, Fox News and the various rightwing periodicals/papers. This is going to be like the selling of the Iraq War. Lots of painting lipstick on the pig.

The question is...who's going to get fooled again?

Posted by Carla at January 10, 2005 08:26 AM