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November 01, 2005

Guzzintas and other cipherin'

Joe Galloway will never be mistaken for Jethro Bodine:

So what do the Iraq numbers mean? Well, last year American commanders estimated that there were no more than 5,000 active insurgents in Iraq.

Those same commanders have reported that some 1,300 insurgents have been killed since the end of January 2005 and another 8,260 have been detained.

But wait! Before you declare the war over, consider this: Gen. John Abizaid, the head of the U.S. Central Command, said on Oct. 2 that he estimates that there now are 20,000 insurgents.

So let's do a little math: Five thousand insurgents minus 1,300 killed equals 3,700 left. Minus 8,260 insurgents captured. Equals 20,000 insurgents still out there.

20,000 insurgents still out there hating us for our freedom. This is not victory or anything even vaguely resembling "making America safer". But hang on for the heartbreaker:

A friend of mine who keeps count of the number of American children orphaned by the war in Iraq because the Vietnam War left her fatherless reports that 21 American children lost their fathers in Iraq in the month of September alone.

That number is a national tragedy. These are young Americans who will grow up listening for a footstep they will never hear again; reaching out for arms that will never hold them again; living a lifetime with a hole in their hearts where a father was supposed to live and laugh and love.

And many, many times that number of Iraqi children have been condemned to the same heartbroken existence by insurgent car bombs and American mistakes.

And so when people don't understand why, bless your heart, you just don't like George W. Bush, I thank Atrios for saying it better (and with way fewer F-words):

Something I think is just about undeniable at this point is that we have a president who has decided that "leaving Iraq = losing." Even aside from whatever reason we're really there for, or what our long term ambitions in the region are, he's settled into this little narrative that can't be broken. Iraq is the central front in the war on terror. The terrorists are attacking us there. The terrorists want us to leave. If we leave the terrorists win.

We are not going to see significant troop withdrawals in '06, '07, or '08 absent a major rebellion by Republicans in Congress, which I can't see happening. Even a Democratic sweep in '06 won't help end this thing.

All the talk of benchmarks, timetables, withdrawal, whatever is somewhat moot. There's nothing which will cause Bush to call for withdrawal. It's his mission, his purpose, his raison d'etre. It's all he's got, and he's not going to let go no matter how many people die.

Posted by Jeff at November 1, 2005 05:36 AM