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December 27, 2005

What was hot... or not in 2005

The Pew Research Center has released their analysis of public opinion trends for 2005 and some of it is very interesting.

1. Bush's popularity tanked - Bush's approval rating hit new lows in November with just 36% of the public thought he had lived up to his campaign pledge to restore integrity to the White House. By December, a variety of factors shored up the president's approval rating in some major polls although not in others. However, a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll found that by a 47%-38% margin, the public judged that this year the president would make Santa's "naughty," rather than "nice" list, up from 40% who thought so in 2004 and 31% in 2003.

2. Hurricane Damage - Most Americans gave the federal government an F on its handling of Hurricane Katrina's aftermath.

3. Iraq Disillusionment - Following a small post-election bounce, public approval of the president's handling of the situation in Iraq resumed its downward drift, hitting a low of 37% in October and has remained in the mid-30s since then.

4. Reaganomic Anxiety - Even before the 2005 hurricane season the public was apprehensive about the economy. In May, only 44% of Americans rated their personal financial situation good or excellent, down from 51% in January; only 35% approved of the president's handling of the economy. In Katrina's wake, fully 71% of the public (the most in two decades) reported following news about gas prices very closely. As prices receded and economic reports re-brightened in December, prices at the pump were still closely watched by 61% of the public and 40% of Americans said they were finding it hard to make ends meet.

5. Anti-Hegomony - 42% said that America should "mind its own business internationally"—on par with numbers expressing that view after the ends of the Vietnam War and the Cold War. 66% of the public said that the U.S. is less respected than in the past. When asked why, 71% cite the War in Iraq as a "major reason" for global discontent with America. By contrast only 54% cite the War on Terrorism as a major reason. Oddly, 78% of journalists cite U.S. support for Israel as a major reason while only 39% of the public agreed.

6. Domestic Considerations - While terrorism still ranked high among the public's concerns, domestic priorities rose in prominence. At the start of 2005 Americans already disagreed with White House priorities—tax cuts, tax simplification, tort reform—ranking Social Security, health care, aid to the poor and the budget deficit more important. By October, half of the public said Bush should give domestic issues priority over the war on terrorism and a large majority (69%) said the next president should offer different policies.

7. Schiavo Backlash - Public opinion delivered a surprise verdict on a bill rushed into law by Congress in March that would have required federal courts to intervene in a state court decision allowing removal of a feeding tube from a long-comatose Florida woman. Initial reaction was highly negative and four months later, three quarters of the public still felt that Congress should have stayed out of the case, a view essentially unchanged late in the year.

8. Devolution - While 48% say that life evolved over time (26% said it was via natural selection and 18% said God guided it), 42% said that life has "existed in its present form since the beginning of time". According to an NPR segment I heard this evening on this Pew analysis, those basic percentages haven't changed for a number of years. What's changed is that more Americans (64%) are open to alternative explanations being taught alongside evolution in school, with a sizable minority (38%) favoring evolution being completely replaced with creationism. However, the polling analysis indicates a degree of confusion over what the terms "creationism" and "evolution" mean.

9. Social Security - Despite a nationwide push, President Bush's plan to allow individuals to divert part of their payroll taxes to private accounts stumbled. While 70% of the public signaled support for private Social Security accounts in the fall of 2000 and nearly 60% in the fall of 2004, by May 2005 fewer than half (47%) did so, and only 3-in-10 Americans approved of Bush's handling of Social Security.

10. The Feds - Both the legislative and executive branches of the federal government took a beating in the public eye. Congress continued its downward slide with only 45% of the public holding at least a somewhat favorable view of the body by mid-October, including a mere 7% who declared a "very" favorable opinion. Overall the federal government scored no better: Its favorability rating fell from a high of 73% as recently as April 2003 to 46% in December.
    

One section of the Pew analysis that I found particularly interesting as an Independent was the section on religion and politics.

By very similar margins a slim plurality of Americans see religious conservatives as having too much control over the GOP (45% agree, 42% disagree) and non-religious liberals as having too much control over the Dems (44% agree, 42% disagree). However, Independents are more critical of the influence of religious conservatives on the GOP than they are of the influence of secular liberals on the Dems. Most Independents (54%) think religious conservatives have too much influence over the GOP, while fewer (43%) think secular liberals have too much sway on the Dems.

Update: Over at Indie Castle I dig deeper into Indies on the issues

Posted by Kevin at December 27, 2005 06:28 PM