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May 20, 2006
Kulongoski by the (polling) numbers.
Survey USA just released their latest monthly tracking poll on Oregon Governor Kulongoski. The numbers are a mixed bag. Kulongoski's overall approval rating ticked up a couple percentage points from 33 to 35% while his overall disapproval rating ticked up another percentage point to 58%. Those not stating an opinion was at it's lowest in the last year at a mere 7% undecided, which means that Kulongoski has a tough task on his hands. He's got until November to convince a lot of Oregonians that he's their best option.
The good news for Kulongoski: Among Democrats his approval rating is back in the top half. After temporarily dipping all the way down to 42% in April, he's now back up to 50% with 45% disapproving. Among Liberals the numbers are nearly the same except on that track he's up to 51% approval with 43% disapproving - numbers that have got to make his campaign happy even though they're still not exactly great numbers for him. And outside of the Portland Metro area his disapproval number stayed the same at 56% while his approval rating jumped from 33 to 38%, with most of that gain appearing to come from the undecided column.
The bad news: Among Independents (roughly 25% of registered voters) his disapproval numbers ticked up from 57 to 64% while his approval rating ticked down from last month's 32% to this month's low of 27%. And his numbers in the Portland Metro area continue to suck, although at roughly the same rate that they did last month. Both his disapproval and his approval numbers ticked up one percentage point in the Portland area: Disapproval - 59%, Approval - 34%
The lukewarm news: In a three-way race with Saxton (R) and Westlund (I) and with each candidate holding some form of a pro-choice position, the polling numbers for Kulongoski among pro-choice adults is predictably a mixed bag. The numbers trended in his favor over the last month with the approvals going up and the disapprovals going down, but he's still clearly unpopular with pro-choicer Oregonians even though his is the most liberal pro-choice position among the three main candidates. 52% disapprove of Kulongoski and 41% approve. Last month those numbers were 54 and 38%, respectively. So, he's gained ground, but not much.
The battle for the middle: Among the demographic that all three candidates are most keen to capture, Kulongoski gained ground with Moderates. He's not popular, with 55% disapproving and 38% approving of Kulongoski. But those are better numbers than last month's figures when it was 59% disapproving and only 33% approving. However, perhaps more importantly for his campaign, this month's numbers show the first break in what had been a steadily rising disapproval rating among Moderates going back to last November. So here again his campaign has to at least feel like they've reversed a trend which would have spelled certain doom in the general election.
There are a few other ways to break down Kulongoski's numbers. So go knock yourself out if you want. However I think these numbers that I've cited are the most relevant.
Posted by Kevin at May 20, 2006 10:00 AM
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