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July 18, 2006

Congressional Preview #3 - NY/PA

Like New York, Pennsylvania is a state the the Democrats are concentrating a lot of their resources and effort in their attempt to take control of the House.

The number of targetted races in the Northeast is mind boggling, but we're almost done - so let's get to today's previews, including my first prediction of a Democrat victory.

New York 29 - Randy Kuhl (R) vs Eric Massa (D) - Kuhl pulled of victory in 2004 because his opponent turned a story about Kuhl's past with spousal abuse (including a couple of shotguns) into a story about herself by the way it was given to the press. This time, it looked early on like he would get another break when former aide to General Wesley Clark Eric Massa couldn't seem to get traction. But Kuhl seems to be sleepwalking through his re-election bid, and Massa is starting to pull it together. And with the dynamics at play in New York, Kuhl might sleepwalk himself right out of a Congressional seat. Toss Up

Pennsylvania 4 - Melissa Hart (R) vs Jason Altmire (D) - Hart hasn't faced a serious opponent in a while, but has one in Jason Altmire. A local businessman, Altmire has shown himself to be a solid candidate with a bright future in politics. Still, Hart has the experience and the resources to win this one unless a blue wave hits the Northeast. Leans GOP

Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach (R) vs Lois Murphy (D) - Lois Murphy ran one of the best campaigns in 2004 and came within a few thousand votes of knocking off Gerlach. She's back, and her machine is well oiled and running strong. Gerlach, for his part, finds himself tied to an extremely unpopular President in a suburban district that is trending blue, anyway. Murphy has Gerlach on the ropes and has what it takes to deliver the knock-out punch. Leans Dem

Pennsylvania 7 - Curt Weldon (R) vs Joe Sestak (D) - Retired Admiral Sestak has quickly put together yet another strong Philadelphia area campaign against the well liked Curt Weldon. Weldon's stances on the issues are a bit extreme for the suburban district, but no one has been able to mount a credible challenge in the past to point this out to his constituents. That doesn't seem to be a problem for Sestak who has raised over $1,000,000 in less than 6 months. Weldon is a strong campaigner, but is as likely to say something to knock his opponent off kilter as he is to say something that will knock himself out. Toss Up

Pennsylvania 8 - Mike Fitzpatrick (R) vs Patrick Murphy (D) - Mike Fitzpatrick backed into this seat in 2004 against a very weak Dem candidate after the August '04 retirement of Greenwood. This time, his opponent, veteran Patrick Murphy, will make sure he has to work to keep his seat, yet another of the Philadelphia suburb seats in play. Murphy has put together a strong campaign and, with the Rendell and Casey machines going full throttle to get out the vote here, Murphy could make Fitzpatrick a one termer. The concern for Murphy, though, is having his message lost in a saturated media market. Toss Up

Next - Pennsylvania continued, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. All Congressional Previews are cross posted to Swede And Czech.

Posted by Alan at July 18, 2006 04:37 AM