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July 19, 2006

Congressional Preview #4 - PA/VA/NC/FL

Now that we're wrapping up the Northeast, things will move a bit more quickly around the country - at least until we get to the midwest.

Democrats are constantly wondering about The South and what to do about it. I don't have the answers, but today we'll preview a few candidates that might give us some clues.

Pennsylvania 10 - Don Sherwood (R) vs Chris Carney (D) - In normal circumstances, with an average incumbent, this wouldn't be on anyones radar. Allegations of adultry and assault of a girl in her 20's against Sherwood, and Sherwood's admission to an affair with her, got the Democrats looking at this seat. Chris Carney is a perfect candidate to step into this challenge. A former intelligence officer, Carney is conservative enough to be able to reach out to independents and angry Republicans. Sherwood barely made it through his primary against someone with no name recognition, which tells us that there are quite a few people not happy with him. All that being said, this is solid GOP territory, and it's hard for me to see this one going blue in the end. Leans GOP

Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake (R) vs Phil Kellam (D) - Thelma Drake won this seat in 2004 in what was a bigger battle than the GOP expected, and this time the Democrats got their best candidate to run. Phil Kellam is the Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue, and is well known and well liked in this military district. His campaign is running well, and he will have the resources to challenge Drake. This is going to be a dogfight. Toss Up

Virginia 10 - Frank Wolf (R) vs Judy Feder (D) - Congressman Wolf can't be sleeping well at night. Judy Feder is a tenacious candidate that frankly reminds me of Melissa Bean in her doggedness on the campaign trail. This is a suburban DC district that is growing more blue all the time. Feder has what it takes, and is showing that she can bring in the resources, to make this a battle, and one I'm sure Wolf was not expecting. Toss Up

North Carolina 11 - Charles Taylor (R) vs Heath Shuler (D) - Charles Taylor has been wrapped in scandal for years, yet the Dems haven't been able to unseat him. That's about to change. Former U of Tennessee quarterback Heath Shuler is a native of western Carolina, socially in line with the district, and has put together an extremely strong campaign. Charles Taylor will use his personal wealth to try to blunt Shuler, and both the DCCC and NRCC will play heavily here. However, Taylor's "missed vote" on CAFTA is likely to be the biggest mistake of his career in representing this textile district. Expect to see Heath Shuler in the next Congress. Leans Dem

Florida 8 - Ric Keller (R) vs Alan Grayson (D) - This race popped on everyone's radar about a month ago with the entry of attorney Alan Grayson into the race. Grayson went after corruption by government contractors and recently won a settlement against Iraq contractors that were bilking the government. He has the personal wealth to give Ric Keller fits. Grayson faces a three way primary and, if he is defeated, this race comes of the chart. Keller has won tough battles before, but not in a while, and it'll be interesting to see if he is ready for this one. Toss Up

Coming next - Florida continues, then Kentucky. All Congressional Previews are cross posted at Swede And Czech.

Posted by Alan at July 19, 2006 06:31 AM