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July 21, 2006

Congressional Preview #6 - KY/OH

Another hot battleground for house races this year will be Ohio. The GOP is in disarray, Governor Taft has approval ratings somewhere equal to Attila the Hun, and the Democrats smell blood.

We still have a couple of races in Kentucky to finish up with first though.

Happy Friday.

Kentucky 3 - Anne Northup (R) vs John Yarmuth (D) - This is one of those seats that the Democrats think they can win every year, only to be disappointed on election day. Northup is an extremely strong campaigner and has done a lot to solidify herself with the minority communities in Louisville. That being said, former newspaper publisher John Yarmuth is proving himself to be a strong campaigner in his own right. And Congresswoman Northup's ties to the Bush administration, as well as the scandal-plagued GOP Governor, make this race one very much worth watching. Toss Up

Kentucky 4 - Geoff Davis (R) vs Ken Lucas (D) - Davis won this seat in 2004 against Nick Clooney (George's father) after Lucas decided to call it a career. Well, Lucas has had a change of heart, and is running to win back his old seat. Lucas has the credentials as a Blue Dog Democrat, but this district is turning into solid GOP country. Despite what national Democrats think, this is Davis' to lose. Leans GOP

Ohio 1 - Steve Chabot (R) vs John Cranley (D) - The right atmosphere (Bush losing steam & a corrupt state GOP) and the right candidate (Cincinnati City Councilmember Cranley) combine to make this one of the more exciting races to watch in the country come November. Chabot had beaten back a few previous strong challenges (including one from a younger Cranley) and seemed on his way to making this a safe seat. But all that changed with the entry on Cranley. A bulldog on the campaign trail, Cranley isn't likely to let up on Chabot, and may have him on the defensive through election day. Toss Up

Ohio 12 - Pat Tiberi (R) vs Bob Shamansky (D) - Tiberi was likely to coast to victory in this seat until a very spry former Congressman Shamansky decided to make a run. He knows what it takes to win, and Tiberi is going to have to work much harder than anyone expected. But, in the end, no one expects Tiberi to lose this seat. Leans GOP

Ohio 15 - Deborah Pryce (R) vs Mary Jo Kilroy (D) - Yet another member of the GOP leadership faces a big challenge this cycle in the name of Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy. EMILY's List is strong with Kilroy and, early on, a number of pundits figured that Pryce was ripe for the picking. However, Pryce hasn't backed down from the challenge, and Kilroy's early momentum may not be enough to get her into Congress. Leans GOP

Next - Finish up Ohio, then Indiana & Michigan. All Congressional Previews are cross posted at Swede And Czech

Posted by Alan at July 21, 2006 12:28 PM