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July 17, 2006

Congressional Race Preview #2 - NJ/NY

New York is a unique state for Democrats this cycle. The GOP hasn't put up any real candidates at the top of the ticket, and both Spitzer and Clinton are likely to pull out Democrat voters.

If a wave develops for the Democrats, look for it to start in New York.

If a race is not listed when I finish a state, it's because I don't see it as a viable race. Just an FYI.

Now, on to today's previews.

New Jersey 7 - Mike Ferguson (R) vs Linda Stender (D) - Ferguson got an easy go last cycle when the Dem candidate's campaign imploded, but he won't be so lucky this time around. Linda Stender is the real deal. I would say that Ferguson's shady past (including a huge fine from the FEC) will be an issue, but it hasn't proven to be in past elections, so I doubt it will be this time, either. Stender will have the added muscle of EMILY's List and, with not a whole lot going on in New Jersey politics in November, this race will get some attention from just about everybody. Toss Up

New York 19 - Sue Kelly (R) vs Judy Aydelott or John Hall (D) - Moderate Sue Kelly faces her first real race this decade. The question right now is, who is she going to face? There is a five way Democrat primary in September. Two candidates have risen to the top. Judy Aydelott has the better overall operation, but John Hall has the local connections, and is coming on strong. Meanwhile, Kelly is sitting quietly on $1.2 million dollars waiting for the battered Dem to stumble toward her. Whomever wins will need help to cross the November finish line. Leans GOP

New York 20 - John Sweeney (R) vs Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - John Sweeney is in the race of his life against dynamo Gillibrand. Sweeney seems to have been knocked back on his heels by her aggressive campaign as she hit him on lobbyist paid trips early on. Local news had a field day with his trip to a frat party. This is a great pick up opportunity for the Democrats. Toss Up

New York 24 - Ray Meier (R) vs Mike Arcuri (D) - Both parties recruited their strongest candidate for this open seat race. While both seem to be steady, I don't imagine that Tom Reynolds at the NRCC is going to let this seat go without a fight. Leans GOP

New York 25 - Jim Walsh (R) vs Dan Maffei (D) - This seat is in play mostly because of the New York election dynamics this cycle. Maffei is a passable candidate, and is raising enough money to keep this on people's radar. But in the end, I suspect Walsh will be able to pull this one out. Unless there's a wave, of course. Leans GOP

Next preview - New York continued and Pennsylvania. All Congressional Race Previews are cross posted at Swede And Czech

Posted by Alan at July 17, 2006 04:19 AM