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July 22, 2006

Congressional Race Preview #7 - OH/IN/MI

Indiana is one of the redder states in the country, yet is a battleground for Democrats nonetheless.

Led by Vanderberg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, Indiana could also be an indicator early on as to whether the Dems will be able to take over the majority in the House.

Ohio 18 - Bob Ney (R) vs Zack Space (D) - Plagued by the Abramoff scandal (he is listed in the investigation as "Congressmember A") and spending more money on legal defense than on his campaign, this race should, by all rights, be a slam dunk for the Democrats. But the Democrats, bless their heart, nominated attorney Space, who seemingly has no idea of how to run a campaign or why he's running. He still could win, but he'll likely have to be carried across the finish line to do it. Toss Up

Indiana 2 - Chris Chocola (R) vs Joe Donnelly (D) - Chocola faces a rematch with business owner Donnelly. On paper, he is the perfect candidate and, in person, is one of the finest people you could ever meet. Unfortunately, Chocola has a lot of personal wealth and Donnelly, like Space in the previous race (although not nearly to Space's degree), seemingly seems lost on how to run a campaign properly. Leans GOP

Indiana 8 - John Hostettler (R) vs Brad Ellsworth (D) - Every incumbent has the "nightmare opponent". The one that makes them wake up in the middle of the night with sweats. Unfortunately for Hostettler, that opponent is running against him this cycle in the person of Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Telegenic, smart, and extremely well respected, its hard to see how Hostettler, who is so far to the right that he's out of touch with even this conservative district, pulls of another victory here. The NRCC is already attacking Ellsworth with a "Willie Horton" type ad, but even this is unlikely to keep Hostettler in Congress. Leans Dem

Indiana 9 - Mike Sodrel (R) vs Baron Hill (D) - Sodrel won this seat in 2004 from Hill in the 2nd closest race in the nation. Hill is back for a rematch, hoping that Bush's drop in popularity is enough to give him his old seat back. Both parties are likely to pour money into this seat. In the end, though, this is a conservative leaning district, and unlikely to unseat the GOP incumbent. Leans GOP

Michigan 8 - Mike Rogers (R) vs Jim Marcinkowski (D) - This Michigan district has the makings of a battleground, and former CIA employee Marcinkowski has the background to put this seat into serious play - one day. Rogers, though, has far more resources this time around, and there doesn't seem to be the movement afoot in the district to throw out the popular Congressman. Leans GOP

Next preview - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. All Congressional Race Previews cross posted at Swede And Czech

Posted by Alan at July 22, 2006 08:38 AM