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July 23, 2006

Congressional Race Preview #8 - IA/WI/MN

The upper midwest is still a populist hotbed, even though that sometimes gets overlooked as we look at more populated areas of the country.

This is where people that work the land and people that work in the cities and factories seem to be able to find common ground politically.

In today's preview I have my 4th Democrat victory prediction.

Iowa 1 - Mike Whalen (R) vs Bruce Braley (D) - This is an open seat battle of political heavyweights in a swing district that both parties are intent on winning. Whalen is a very strong campaigner and comes out of his primary with the resources necessary to get his message out. Braley is the former head of the Iowa Trial Attorneys and has run a very smart, effective campaign thus far. This will be one to watch as we approach election day. Toss Up

Wisconsin 8 - John Gard (R) vs Nancy Nusbaum (D) - Nusbaum still faces a contested primary, but is the only Democrat with both the resources and the political acumen to make this a race. Gard is the GOP standard bearer in this GOP leaning open seat. Although Nusbaum could make a race of it, it will take some national momentum for her to win this seat. Leans GOP

Minnesota 1 - Gil Gutknecht (R) vs Tim Walz (D) - Gutknecht is one of the more thoughtful members of the House of Representatives and is a close match for the district. However, he faces "The Little Campaign That Could" in veteran and high school principal Tim Walz. Gutknecht has recently begun to question our involvement in Iraq, but his ties to and unpopular president could make this race close. Walz is plugging along and doing better than many expected of him, but it will take a wave to get him into Congress. Leans GOP

Minnesota 2 - John Kline (R) vs Colleen Rowley (D) - What started out as a highly touted success in candidate recruiting for the DCCC in FBI whistleblower Colleen Rowley has turned into something close to an embarassment. Without even a basic understanding of how to run a political campaign, her campaign is teetering along and the brink of falling apart. Kline, on the otherhand, is a ruthless campaigner and should be able to make short work of Rowley in a seat that should be in play for the Dems. Leans GOP

Minnesota 6 - Michele Bachmann (R) vs Patty Wetterling (D) - Although this is a moderately conservative, slightly GOP leaning district, the perfect storm seems to be coming together for the Democrats. The GOP nominated extreme social right winger Bachmann, whose focus on homosexuality (she once was caught spying on a gay rights rally from the bushes) to the detriment of other issues puts her out of touch with most of the district. The Democrats nominated well known child safety activist Patty Wetterling, who challenged incumbent Mark Kennedy in 2004 and made it quite the race. Look for Wetterling in DC come 2007. Leans Dem

Coming next - Illinois and Nebraska. All Congressional Race Previews are cross posted at Swede And Czech

Posted by Alan at July 23, 2006 10:52 AM