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November 11, 2006

14 For The GOP

It looks as though the Dems are going to hold a 231-204 majority in the House of Representatives, meaning that in 2008 the GOP will need to pick up 14 seats to take the majority.

Being the nice guy that I am, I am going to list the 14 most vulnerable members on the Dem side. These will be the seats that they start targeting the day after the new Congress is sworn in.

The press release will read "(Fill in the Blank) votes for extremeist Pelosi for Speaker with first vote."

Expect most of these members to be on the DCCC Frontline list in 2007.

Joe Courtney (CT-2) - Courtney won this seat in a nailbiter, and the GOP will not be able to help themselves in going after him.

Tim Mahoney (FL-16) - Mahoney won because Foley's name was still on the ballot, and they will target him with a vengence.

Ron Klein (FL-22) - This is a swing district in Florida, but Klein is going to be tough to bring down.

Jim Marshall (GA-3) - Marshall ran an inept campaign and barely held on to this seat. There are rumors of him running for US Senate. If thats true, this will be an open seat the the GOP will need to win.

John Barrow (GA-8) - The GOP did their best to defeat him this cycle, even drawing his base out of this district. But because its Georgia, they'll go after him again.

Baron Hill (IN-9) - Hill lost this seat in 2004, and won it back in 2006. Indiana always had the "Bloody 8th". Its been replaced with the "Bloody 9th".

Dave Loebsack (IA-2) - There is not one person on either side in DC that is not shocked that he pulled of this race. The GOP will definitely go after him.

Nancy Boyda (KS-2) - Dennis Moore used to be the perennial Kansas target for the GOP. Nancy will take his place. A former Republican, she may be able to hold this seat for some time.

John Yarmuth (KY-3) - The race that told everyone that the Dems were going to have a big night was this one, and the GOP will try to do the same thing in the same district in 2 years.

Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1) - She may be a bit too liberal for the anti-tax people of this state. At least the GOP is hoping so.

John Hall (NY-19) - The former lead singer of the 70's group Orleans is smarter and harder working than anyone seemed to know. He, like Sonny Bono before him, allowed everyone to underestimate him and got the last laugh. They won't misunderestimate him in '08.

Jason Altmire (PA-4) - He's a strong campaigner and beat another strong campaigner. A pro-labor Republican will be recruited to take him on.

Patrick Murphy (PA-8) - He won a nailbiter in the Philly suburbs, and will definitely be on the '08 list.

Steve Kagen (WI-8) - Kagen bought this Green Bay district in a Dem year, but this is a GOP leaning district, and they will go after it again.

Posted by Alan at November 11, 2006 10:15 AM