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September 23, 2007

Independents and some Conservatives turn on GOP

WASHINGTON - Michael Brooks is exactly the kind of voter the Republican Party can ill afford to lose. But in a foreboding omen for 2008, it may have already done just that.

In a trend that I've seen coming for several years now the MSM is finally talking about Independents having turned away from the GOP.

National exit polls show that after leaning toward Republicans by 48 percent to 45 percent as recently as the 2002 elections, independents began shifting toward Democrats.

Yeah, that's what I've noticed. Since 2003/2004 my fellow Indies have turned away from GOP stances on many issues, but mostly on national security issues revolving largely around Dubya's Folly (aka Iraq War).

"This is a serious problem" for Republicans, says GOP pollster Neil Newhouse. "We didn't get where we are among independents overnight. The data does suggest that it's going to take us some time to earn those votes back."

Yeah... good luck with that, Newhouse. You know what they say, "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." When you lose the White House and more seats in Congress in November '08, I suggest you go give Karl Rove a big wet one and thank him for that "service to his country" that Dubya talked about.

Two key stats that stand out in the Ipsos polling data on two separate polls earlier this month, here and here (.pdf warning).

1. In straight Party affiliation (or lack thereof) Independents outnumber Republicans 25% to 23% of the population, with Dems topping both at 33%. Meaning that in addition to having the loyalty of a full 10% more of the population, Democrats also enjoy the favor of Independents. In terms of party loyalists and leaners the Democrats enjoy a 48% to 36% advantage over the GOP.

2. The Ideology stats are highly interesting in relation to the party affiliation stats. Total Liberal is at 22% while Total Conservative is at 39%. Which means that at least some conservatives don't even lean towards the GOP in a head-to-head match up between Dems/GOP. I'm not sure what exactly to make of that but I do find it fascinating.

Posted by Kevin at September 23, 2007 09:50 AM