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February 25, 2008

Connecting the McCain dots

John McCain had a problem.
He knew the New York Times was working on a story about him. He should have known, because it had been broken by Matt Drudge back in December, that it was about his relationship with Vicki Iseman. As long as the focus of the story was on a rumored romantic relationship with her his problem would be manageable. THAT story could be refuted and there was no hard evidence to back it up. At worst it would be a he said-she said situation. At best just the suspicians of some campaign staffers, at least one of whom could be said to be 'disgruntled'.
But if the story delved into the issue of undue influence and favors done for Vicki Iseman the lobbyist and her clients, it could derail the Straight Talk Express. It would show his claims of "no lobbyists need apply here" to be false.
In that situation, what would you do ?
Connect the dots and come to our own conclusions.
(I'll give you mine in a bit)

DOT....McCain's campaign is very short of money.
from the AP: on November 9, 2007
(AP) Republican John McCain, climbing in polls but lagging in money, is negotiating a $3 million loan while some of his backers launch an independent advertising effort seemingly at odds with his years of fighting outside influence in campaigns.
McCain ended the third quarter of the year with $3.5 million, $1.7 million of which was available for the primaries. He also reported a debt of $1.7 million.
I also saw a quote from the January FEC filings that McCain had $5.5 million in cash-on-hand and $5.2 million in outstanding debts.

DOT....McCain is now using the New York Times story in his fund raising.
According to
"the NYT" :
Later that afternoon (Thursday), the McCain campaign began using The Times in an fund-raising appeal sent by e-mail to supporters. “Well, here we go,” the letter from Mr. McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, began, then outlined what it characterized as the newspaper’s smear campaign. Mr. Davis quickly got to the point: “We need your help to counteract the liberal establishment and fight back against The New York Times by making an immediate contribution today.”

By Friday, the campaign was tracing its jump in fund-raising directly to the article in The Times. “Thank you,” Mr. Schmidt said to a Times reporter on Mr. McCain’s campaign plane as it headed back to Washington from Indianapolis. Then he added to a group of reporters, “There was a lot of outrage across the country on the story, and the campaign has raised a lot of money in the last 24 hours.”

DOT....the SOURCE for the information in the NYT story is unnamed McCain Campaign staffers. (and one who is named)
From "USNews website" :
Hints of a campaign scandal involving Sen. John McCain and a female telecom lobbyist broke into the open today, with the New York Times running a front-page story that features unnamed McCain aides' suspicions of a romantic relationship between the Senator and Vicki Iseman.

The Washington Post reports former McCain aide John Weaver said aides "confronted" Iseman "in late 1999 and asked her to distance herself from" McCain "during the presidential campaign he was about to launch." Weaver, who "served as McCain's closest confidant until leaving his current campaign last year,....

DOT....the New York Times endorsed McCain.
"from Reuters" :
The New York Times on Thursday endorsed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton and Republican Sen. John McCain for their party's nominations to contest the U.S. presidential election in November.

DOT....McCain and Karl Rove recently became chummy.
According to
"Huffington Post" :
"McCain Embraces Rove" February 10, 2008 12:22 PM
Karl Rove last week announced that he had given $2300 to the presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain.
Asked over the weekend about the donation, McCain said he has "always respected Karl Rove as one of the smart great political minds I think in American politics," and specifically refused to condemn Rove's hyper-partisan campaign tactics (including his smears against McCain in the 2000 South Carolina race).

And "Fox News" has this:
Seattle, WA – Maintaining that he does not hold any grudges from the 2000 GOP nomination fight, John McCain says that Karl Rove’s help and advice is welcome aboard the Straight Talk Express.
One day after Rove, a former senior aide to President Bush and architect of the 2000 and 2004 victories, donated $2,300 to McCain’s campaign, the presumptive nominee said Friday aboard his campaign plane that he is open Rove’s support in this year’s election.
“Nobody denies that he is one of the smartest political minds in America. I’d be glad to have him give us advice,” McCain said, joking that “saw the moths fly out” of Rove’s wallet upon receiving the donation.
“They beat me (in 2000). I would certainly be happy to have them give us advice….. he has a very good, great political mind and any information or advice and counsel he could give us I would be glad to have,” he added.

DOT....remember when "somebody" bugged Rove's office (back in 1986) and it turned out to be Karl himself?
Here's what "Wikipedia" has to say about it:
In 1986, just before a crucial debate in campaign, Rove claimed that his office had been bugged by Democrats. The police and FBI investigated and discovered that the bug's battery was so small that it needed to be changed every few hours, and the investigation was dropped. Critics suspected Rove had bugged his own office to garner sympathy votes in the close governor's race.

So we have a Times article about to break on McCain and Iseman. The article is least problematic for McCain if it focuses on a 'suspected romantic relationship' that can't be proven. A 'baseless attack' by the 'liberal biased media' can also be exploited to help with lagging fund-raising. McCain can claim 'outrage' at the scurrilous, 'below the belt' (pun intended) nature of the attack. (generating some voter as well as donor sympathy) The Times endorsed him so someone there must be a supporter. And a convenient conduit to direct a 'disgruntled' former staffer towards with juicy tidbits. Having left the campaign last year, Weaver could be credibly characterized as "a disgruntled former staffer". It's no secret that there has been long-running disagreement between Weaver and other McCain advisors. Other staffers can confirm the story anonymously without giving it undue credence. (anonymous sources are usually not viewed as the most reliable)
But what kind of mind can think up such deviousness, let alone put it into action?

Enter Karl Rove. One time enemy, now a friendly contributor (and probably looking for another 'insider' position after Bush-Cheney leave office). The man who orchestrated the "Swift-boating" of McCain in South Carolina in 2000.

Unfortunately for McCain, the story has grown legs. They started delving into the influence buying by Iseman's clients. Large campaign contributions, favorable letters written, questionable votes both in Committee and on the Senate floor.
Denials of a romantic relationship were difficult to counter, but meetings and letters leave a trail. The denial of a meeting is countered with sworn deposition testimony.
Can he hunker down and ride out the storm? Or will it doom him for November?

Is a feeling of "buyer's remorse" beginning to creep through the Republican Party?
Some Republicans I've talked to very recently have raised the question:
"Can Mitt get back in the race?"

That they are even thinking along those lines does not bode well for John McCain.
How ironic would it be if the Republicans wound up being the ones with a Brokered Convention?

Posted by Mac at February 25, 2008 02:45 AM