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May 16, 2008

Steve Novick: Democrats are failures

People have often asked me why, after leaving the Republican Party in 1990 out of disgust with their non-existant morality and ethics, why I didn't join the Democratic Party. It was because I didn't see any moral or ethical highground among either political party. And just weeks after having joined the Democratic Party specifically because I'd been inspired enough to do so, along comes Steve Novick to remind me why I'd made the decision I had back in 1990 and why I'd stuck with it for so many years.

Steve Novick rolled out a new TV ad this past Sunday and pledged to close out the campaign on a positive note. But, literally as he was making that pledge, he knew that the following morning his campaign would be mailing out a bizzare attack on Jeff Merkley because he hadn't been able to get enough votes to pass legislation to provide health care coverage to uninsured children.

“(Jeff Merkley) failed to deliver on Healthy Kids legislation that would have increased taxes on cigarettes. The result, 125,000 Oregon kids today are without health care.”

In what the Associated Press' Julia Silverman characterized as "And few campaigns are above last-minute flame-throwing she noted that Novick's attack mailer "drew howls of protest from health care advocates."
"No one worked harder than Jeff Merkley to pass Healthy Kids," said Maribeth Healey, who directs Oregonians for Health Security

The Oregonian's Jeff Mapes links to a copy of the Novick attack mailer (pdf warning) and noted several pissed off legislators.
"I was absolutely livid" after seeing the mailer, said Rep. Sara Gelser, D-Corvallis, a Merkley supporter who worked on the cigarette tax. Merkley "went to the mat" for the issue and the blame for its failure should be "with the House Republicans and the tobacco industry."

The web-based PolitickerOR focused on several truly pissed off unions including the SEIU, AFL-CIO and the Oregon Nurses Association.
“Speaker Merkley’s leadership and dedication on this issue is unquestionable,” the ONA said in a release.

and...
Tom Chamberlain, President of the Oregon AFL-CIO, was especially upset. Chamberlin recounted his experience watching Mekley attempt to push the Healthy Kids Plan through the Legislature before it was referred to the voters as Measure 50, and said that the Speaker “did everything he could to get it passed.”

Chamberlain went on to say,

"House Republicans and the tobacco industry made it their mission to keep the Healthy Kids Plan from being enacted and keep children as potential smokers," said Chamberlain. "This below the belt attack from Novick doesn't represent the kind of leadership Oregon needs."

Chamberlain noted that he has been “pretty silent, we haven’t responded to the tit for tat [in this race] but this is over the top.”


It is strangely fitting that a caricature of a Progressive politician would reduce an important issue to a caricature of the truth. And the truth is that Speaker Merkley has a 31/29 Democratic majority - the slimmest mathimatical majority possible.

Speaker Merkley not only had to hold his 31 Dems together but also had to peel off 5 Republicans to get the required 3/5ths majority of 36 yes votes. Merkley had the votes in a preliminary vote, but on the final vote one of the Republicans flipped, dropping the Ayes to 35 and dooming the bill.

It's real easy for a 3rd string Armchair QB like Novick to talk a good game. Hell, over-weight Americans do that every Sunday during NFL season, all from the comfort of a LazyBoy and a bowl of cheesy dip. But they don't show up at pre-season training with a bag of chips and sweating profusely to dress down the star QB - who is in shape and good at what he does - for not being perfect.

Posted by Kevin at 06:37 PM |

May 14, 2008

Novick takes money from Carlyle Group big shot

Details are at Portland Mercury Blogtown

Who is the Carlyle Group?

Kinda puts Novick's complaints about the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's (DSCC) money into a new light, huh?

Posted by Kevin at 04:45 PM |

May 13, 2008

This is cute

As a single parent of two daughters I must confess to always having had a huge soft spot for girls. Which is why I had a very visceral reaction to this YouTube the first time I saw it. Heck, I still do. Yes, I'm a political junky and I like that part of it too. But first and foremost I'm a father.

Posted by Kevin at 05:34 PM |

Why the Dead Bodies Now?

I've noticed over the past week that all of a sudden the mainstream news websites are displaying photographs of dead bodies without any warning. None of the usual disclaimers or requirements that you click through before being able to see the pictures. We've seen right at the top of the page photos of bloated corpses floating in the water in Myanmar, and now we're seeing photos of half-buried bodies in the wreckage of China. No warnings of graphic content. It's just sitting out there for all to see.

So why does this bother me? Because, if you remember, we were NOT allowed to see the dead bodies of our own sons, brothers, and fathers returning home from Iraq. We couldn't even see the coffins lined up. Something important like that, which would have brought home to us all the price of our decision to invade Iraq and perhaps even forced our leaders to be straight with us about why they felt that was necessary, we were not allowed to see.

So why are we now suddenly being shown dead bodies?

I am not personally frightened by photographs of dead bodies, though I think many people, and especially children, are. Rather, I feel that showing them so freely robs the dead and their families of their decency and privacy, and that is wrong. Imagine if the corpses we were seeing were Americans who were victims of tornadoes, earthquakes, or floods. You'll notice we haven't been shown any of those victims.

And that brings me to something else that I think it's high time we each faced in our own hearts. Last night I overheard someone saying that China, with all its billions of people, was no worse off for losing 10,000 in an earthquake. It was as if he was talking about dollars, rather than human beings. And I think if we're being honest with ourselves, most of us would react a lot differently to photographs of dead Caucasians than we would to photographs of dead Asians or dead Arabs or dead Africans, which somehow seem more distant, less frightening, and maybe even less human. Could that be the reason why we're seeing photos of dead people in Myanmar and China, but not in America, where we are also having some pretty hefty attacks by Mother Nature? And isn't it time we all face the racist beast inside and conquer it once and for all?

Posted by Becky at 08:40 AM |

May 11, 2008

God Bless Michelle Obama

I honestly have been offended at the negative reaction people have had to Michelle Obama's comments about finally being proud of America. The undertone is obvious to me. Best case, her critics were displaying a false patriotism. Worse case, it was bigoted: How dare a woman be so assertive, and how dare she judge the administrations of white men! Sorry, righties; that's how I see it.

Well, now Michelle has really proven her spunk, and God bless her for it: She has put her foot down on the matter of a Hillary Clinton Vice Presidency. No way, now how.

I love this woman!

Posted by Becky at 03:28 PM |

May 10, 2008

New Poll: Merkley ties Smith, Novick lags behind

Now we have hard evidence showing why Gordon Smith has singled out Jeff Merkley in his latest attack ad - a new poll: Merkley and Smith in statistical tie, Novick lags behind

One of the most compelling aspects to this new poll is that it's a General Election match-up. Which means that it reflects all Oregonians rather than just Democrats as the Primary Election polls have done.

Steve Novick's supporters have consistently argued that his quirky, acidic style will match up better against Gordon Smith in the G.E. But this new poll, especially the trend lines it reveals, shows that it's Jeff Merkley who matches up better against Gordon Smith. Which is why Smith is trying to influence the Dem Primary.

Posted by Kevin at 10:43 AM |

May 09, 2008

BREAKING: Desperate Gordo tries to cherrypick Dem opponent

Last night Gordon Smith launched a false negative ad attacking Jeff Merkley, sending a clear message that Smith is cheering for Steve Novick to win the Democratic primary. Merkley will be joined by Democratic leaders to respond directly to Smith TODAY at the DemoForum at Kwan's Cuisine, 835 Commercial St. SE, Salem at noon.

Why is Gordon Smith attacking Jeff Merkley alone this time rather than both Merkley and Novick like his last ad?

I don't think there's any doubt but that they've been doing their own polling and know that Merkley is pulling away from Novick. Otherwise why would they bother to spend the money on this new ad? Why not make it generic like the last one? Because of their internal polling!

Posted by Kevin at 01:02 PM |

May 08, 2008

Reich-wing RINO WATCH endorses Novick

RINO WATCH endorses the "Hook".

It seems they were impressed by Novick's penchant for calling other Democrats names:

The "Hook" has it right....

*Hillary Clinton --- "coward" & "traitress"
*Darlene Hooley --- the "lie"
*Barack Hussein Obama" --- "nothing to like" & a "special-interest fraud"


I like the "Hook".....


But it's a primary only endorsement. LOL


Posted by Kevin at 11:31 PM |

May 07, 2008

Rush to Destruction

Gawd, I hate Rush Limbaugh. His snide approach to politics has become so stomach-turning and divisive to me that I cannot believe I actually used to listen to him. And it's not just his attitude about Barack Obama that gets to me, his response earlier this week to Hillary Clinton's joke that he had a crush on her was shockingly spiteful. He's an ugly man who is fostering the ugliness in a lot of Americans. For his sake, he had better hope that Hell is a figment of the imagination.

Posted by Becky at 05:54 PM |

Steve Novick is no Mark Hatfield!

There's an interesting post by Novick supporter Leslie Carlson over at Blue Oregon called Oregon: we're for mavericks In it Leslie cites former Governor and Senator Mark Hatfield in trying to make the case that Oregonians are going to vote for Steve Novick because he too is a "maverick."

As a Merkley supporter I avoided trying to counter her argument, largely because she'd written an interesting post which made what seems to be a reasonable argument. But I've been a Hatfield fan for several decades and after several commenters talked about Hatfield I decided to chime in. Here's what I said:

About Hatfield...

Jeff Merkley referenced his internship with Sen. Hatfield at a fundraiser with Max Cleland, Jim Rassman and Barbara Roberts a few days ago.

He spoke about the Presidential Fellowship he won and how he won it. Apparently there were half a dozen openings and a dozen or so candidates who had made it to the final stage - getting grilled by a roomfull of Flag Officers (Generals and Admirals).

When it was Jeff's turn an officer bluntly asked him why they should pick him when he'd interned for Hatfield and Hatfield routinely voted against military appropriations Bills.

Demonstrating early his ability to think on his feet and turn a seeming negative into a positive, Jeff responded with the suggestion that he would bring a fresh perspective which was lacking in the Pentagon and that it would contribute to more balanced analysis which would be more useful to the Flag Officers than not having it.

Merkley walked out of there with a Presidential Fellowship and did it in the finest tradition of Senator Hatfield.

Steve Novick is no Hatfield. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Where Novick uses derogatory and demeaning language to describe those he disagrees with, Hatfield was scrupulously civil and relied upon the strength of both his convictions and of his argument and then let the chips fall where they may. The only trait they really share is as contrarians. Other than that Novick is essentially the anti-Hatfield.

Just read how Senator Paul Sarbane (D-MD) described Hatfield at the CRC dedication in 2004:

He lauded Hatfield's "civility, vision, intelligence and the way he preferred reasoned discourse to invective...I served with him for 20 years and it was a joy to work with him. Mark Hatfield brought a dignity, indeed a nobility to our politics. He set a very high standard of public service. Mark," he said, turning to Hatfield, "we'll do our very best to measure up to your example."
Novick is no Mark Hatfield!
Steve Novick may be a type of "maverick," but he's certainly not the type that Oregonians repeatedly elected in Mark Hatfield. In fact, it seems to me that Jeff Merkley is significantly more like Mark Hatfield than Steve Novick ever has been. Which shouldn't surprise anyone. Afterall, he did intern for Hatfield and to some extent was mentored by Hatfield.

Examples of why are below the fold

Novick on Obama:


Novick on Clinton:

Posted by Kevin at 03:20 PM |

Politicker's Pindell unwittingly shows why Novick is losing

The national Politicker site has a newish blogger named James Pindell who is doing a segment called the Pindell Report. Pindell says that he'll be using "the resources of Politicker's reporting in states to help tell the national political story." So far he's not doing such a great job of getting it right.

Case in point: The newest edition of the Pindell Report suggests (in the form of a question) that Obama's strong showing through April was responsible for the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) downgrading Oregon to its 2nd tier of targeted states. He then goes on to attempt an argument in support of his conclusion. Only thing is... he eschews supporting data in favor of spinning a fanciful tale.

What happened in Oregon in April? A SurveyUSA poll was released and much ballyhooed in Oregon, showing Steve Novick ahead of all challengers at 23% and Jeff Merkley lagging behind at 11%. The very next day the DSCC downgraded Oregon from 1st tier to 2nd tier.

But rather than accept such a clear cause & effect explanation for the DSCC's action, Pindell decided yesterday that somehow Obama must be responsible. He then went on to suggest that Novick is the one who will benefit from Obama's popularity in Oregon, citing newly registered 18-24 year old voters in particular.

If he wants to be taken seriously Pindell ought to have checked the SurveyUSA poll released this last Friday May 2nd before exposing his ignorance in a published report. Not only has Merkley surged in just three weeks to erase Novick's lead in the polls (casting doubt on the veracity of the earlier poll, but that's a side issue), the poll's cross-tab data reveals that Merkley's support among 18-34 year olds nearly tripled. Novick growth with that group less than doubled. So not only is Merkley surging overall, he's surging among the very demographic that Pindell cited.

But that's actually not even the worst of it for Pindell. Contrary to his earlier claim that he'd be using "the resources of Politicker's reporting in states to help tell the national political story," he didn't check with PolitickerOR's post from this past Sunday. If he had then he'd have noticed this buried gem in a piece about Merkley's new ad: "some insiders – maybe even most of them – believe that Republican incumbent Gordon Smith would rather face Novick in the general election." Which really just stated the obvious.

Posted by Kevin at 08:27 AM |

May 06, 2008

Gingrich Discovers "Catastrophic Collapse of Trust"

Well, it's about time someone noticed. Newt Gingrich has called an emergency meeting of House Republicans to discuss Americans' "catastrophic collapse of trust in Republicans." To woo the flock back into the fold, Gingrich has outlined nine acts of “real change” he wants Republican leaders to consider, including a gas tax holiday and a moratorium on earmarks.

Michael Steel, a Boehner spokesman, said, “Leader Boehner certainly agrees - and has said repeatedly -- that Republicans can only succeed this year by being agents of change and reform. The American people know that Washington is broken, and we have to convince them that we can fix it.”

I am reminded of the words of Jeff Spicoli, after he and star football player "Jefferson's" little brother totaled Jefferson's hot new car:

"Relax, all right? My old man is a television repairman, he's got this ultimate set of tools. I can fix it."

No, you can't.

The car is destroyed, and now that it's time to be held accountable for the results of their reckless joy-ride, the Republicans are panicking. The temporary bandaid solutions Gingrich is proposing (a gas tax holiday and earmark moratorium) will only delay the inevitable pain. I hope Republican voters aren't brain-dead enough to believe otherwise.

Posted by Becky at 11:48 AM |

May 04, 2008

UNCOUNTED in Oregon

(editor's note: the following was shamelessly copied more or less verbatim from an email sent out by the PDA. Some editing was done because I thought a slightly different layout would work better.)

Uncounted is a must-see film, featuring PDA Board Member Rep. John Conyers and PDA-endorsed Congressional Candidate Clint Curtis. This is a great chance to see Uncounted with the filmmaker.

Uncounted

Oregon's PDA team is working with the filmmakers who created UNCOUNTED, an explosive new documentary that shows how the election fraud that changed the outcome of the 2004 election led to even greater fraud in 2006--and now looms as an unbridled threat to the outcome of the 2008 election.

See the film, then participate in a Q&A session with the filmmaker, David Earnhardt:

See the trailer.

UNCOUNTED is a wakeup call to all Americans. Beyond increasing public awareness, the film inspires greater citizen involvement in fixing a broken electoral system.

If you can't make it, or even if you can, get your copy of UNCOUNTED here and hold a house party to share this critical information with your friends and neighbors. (PDA earns a small stipend from the sale of each movie.)

P.S. Please tell all your friends to sign the Healthcare NOT Warfare petition.

Posted by Kevin at 06:41 PM |

140K strong Humane Society endorses Merkley!

(previously posted at Blue Oregon)

The Humane Society endorsed Jeff Merkley today. He's their only endorsement in Oregon and they only made two other Primary Election endorsements this year - Kucinich in Ohio and Lautenberg in New Jersey.

Now this is an endorsement which intrigues me. Mostly because either I've never noticed their endorsements before or I just never thought of The Humane Society as the endorsing kind of organization. Either way, this one came out of the blue for me.

Perhaps this explanation from their website is why:

HSLF is a nonpartisan organization that evaluates candidates based only on a single criterion: where they stand on animal welfare. HSLF does not judge candidates based on party affiliation or any other issue.

But it turns out that the HSLF does endorse General Election candidates in most states. In 2006 they endorsed (by my count) 447 candidates in 45 states, including our own Representatives Wu, Blumenauer, DeFazio and Hooley - all of whom won their respective races. This too is interesting to me because in the FAQ section of the HSLF's website they note that a candidate's "chances for winning the seat" is part of the endorsement criteria. Which, frankly, understates the HSLF's emphasis on endorsing winning candidates.

Doing a bit of rudimentary math - 447 endorsees, 44 of whom lost - yields a winning ratio for the 2006 HSLF endorsee slate of over 90%.

I don't know of any other endorsing entity which boasts that high of a win ratio for endorsees, do you?

In the comment thread at Blue Oregon it was pointed out that there are two "Humane Society" entities in the United States. One is the Humane Society of the U.S. (HSUS) and the other is The American Humane Society (AHS). HSUS is the parent organization of the HSLF which endorsed Merkley.

According to Wikipedia, HSUS is the larger of the two with 10 million members nationwide and 140K members here in Oregon. Which I believe makes the HSLF the single biggest endorsing entity in this race.

Posted by Kevin at 12:05 PM |

May 01, 2008

New Poll - surging Merkley ties Novick

SurveyUSA just released the latest poll commissioned by KATU. Merkley and Novick are statistically tied, according to SurveyUSA's analysis. Novick got 30% and Merkley got 28% with the margin of error being 3.9%. Here's SurveyUSA's own analysis:

Oregon U.S. Senate Primary: Merkley Support Nearly Triples, Now Tied with Novick -- In a Democratic Primary in Oregon for United States Senate today, 05/01/2008, three weeks till votes are counted, attorney Steve Novick and state House Speaker Jeff Merkley tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV Portland. Novick today gets 30%, Merkley 28%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error. 4 other candidates in single digits. 26% of voters say they are undecided, or will vote for some other unnamed candidate. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 04/07/08, Novick is up 7 points, Merkley is up 16 points. Among women, Merkley's support has tripled and he now leads Novick 30% to 25%. Among men, Novick is up 7, Merkley is up 8. Among Pro-Life voters, Merkely's support has quadrupled. Among voters age 50+, Merkley had trailed Novick by 12, now tied. As evidence of how closely matched and fiercely fought the contest now is: Among Conservatives, the two are tied. Among Moderates, the two are tied. Among Liberals, the two are tied.

I don't know what to make of the quadrupled support among pro-life voters except that it seems like it must be a reflection of Merkley's strong veteran support.

The tripled support among women makes sense. The Merkley campaign specifically targeted women with their first TV ad, and did it by highlighting his strong support for abortion rights. Which is why I'm left to speculate about the pro-life voter surge too.

Nits to pick are easy to find. Perhaps the biggest one is that just 650 of the 1800 people surveyed are deemed likely to vote according to SurveyUSA's own analysis. Also, 194 of those surveyed weren't registered to vote when they were surveyed and may have missed the deadline to register which fell smack in the middle of the three-day survey.

Posted by Kevin at 06:46 PM |

Max Cleland and Jeff Merkley - YouTube style

Posted by Kevin at 05:57 PM |