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August 13, 2008

Russia, Georgia and White-Haired Dude's lobbyist pals

There have been a lot of charges back and forth over who is at fault for the mini-war in the former Soviet republic of Georgia - the Georgians or the Russians. The circumstantial evidence seems to point to Russia as the instigator, and having done so for essentially the reason which Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has claimed - to undermine the budding Georgian democracy.

The first piece of evidence is the cyberattacks which preceeded the initial Georgian offensive into South Ossetia. This attack has been dismissed as the acts of nationalistic civilians rather than as something planned by the Russian government. But that explanation is premised on a series of assumptions which in no way prove that the Russian government didn't orchestrate it. Indeed, I think we have to credit the Russians as being savvy enough to deliberately try to mask their actions to make it look like the actions of amateurs.

Secondly, the cyberattacks against Georgian "media, communications and transportation companies" expanded to Georgian government servers "after Russian troops entered the Georgian province of South Ossetia".

Then there have been a whole series of Russian invasions of uncontested Georgian territory which the Russians vigorously denied only to have it later confirmed by independent 3rd party sources that in fact the Russian military was exactly where they'd been alleged to be inside Georgia.

Then there is the Russian insistance that they'll only withdraw back to their pre-war positions after the Georgian military returns to its barracks. Which is a clear attempt to dictate internal decisions of a sovereign Georgia which has every right to position it's military anywhere within the uncontested territories that it wishes to - and for whatever reason it wishes to.

Lastly there is the show of solidarity with the Georgians by all those former communist block countries on Russia's Western borders. Given Russia's propensity for walking not so softly while swinging it's club around, I can't see any of those former Soviet provinces/satellite nations weighing in against their much larger and much more powerful neighbor on a whim.

Now I'm not saying that I think Saakashvili is necessarily blameless or a good guy in all of this. Although she's proven herself untrustworthy, I believe the reports that Condi Rice warned Saakashvili in July not to start something he couldn't finish.

However, I find the Russian explanations and excuses unbelievable almost in their entirety.

Meanwhile, White-Haired Dude's chief foreign policy advisor turns out to be a paid Georgian lobbyist - which should surprise nobody. I'm beginning to wonder if there are any NON-lobbyists advising McCain... er... White-Haired Dude.

Posted by Kevin at August 13, 2008 12:59 PM