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September 25, 2008

Poll: Obama & Merkley on top in Oregon

Done for KATU and Roll Call Newspaper, SurveyUSA has all the juicy crosstabs.

Noteworthy in the crosstabs is whom the Independents (NAVs) are going for. There Obama leads McCain 51% to 37% and Merkley leads Smith 45% to 36%.

Favorables are also very interesting. Broken down as favorable/unfavorable/neutral, McCain's numbers appear to be 39/39/19 and Obama's are 51/34/11. In the Senate race Smith's are 31/42/22 and Merkley's are 30/35/25. Notice the very high favorables for Obama and the disproportionately high unfavorables for Smith.

Another very interesting stat which surprised me a bit is that Merkley is leading Smith among men 47% to Smith's 40%. Among Women Smith has a one point lead 43% to 42%. But it is among women where I expect Merkley to make the biggest gains between now and election day.

Overall the numbers look very bad for Gordon Smith and John McCain.

Posted by Kevin at September 25, 2008 08:19 AM