« The ongoing American Holocaust | Main | Those Wascally, Wacist Wepublicans »

June 16, 2009

Ayatollah House Cookies

The disputed Iranian elections have given us fodder for thought, if for no other reason that there's somewhere else to suspect fixed elections that doesn't include, for once, either the words "Ohio" or "Florida" in the name.

It is the Revolution (well, at least, some are hoping it's a revolution) that is being Tweeted.

Despite all that (the suppression of which really only proves that the Iranian leadership are as afraid of the people as the Republicans here ever were) I personally (as an amateur global political pundit) see no reason – at least straight away – get excited for a changed Iran (I leave the nature of the change and its desirability as something of an exercise for the reader). The President of Iran, who at this point is Mr. I'mADinnerJacket, is an important person:

… responsible for the "functions of the executive", such as signing treaties, agreements etc. with other countries and international organizations; the national planning and budget and state employment affairs; appointing ministers, governors, and ambassadors subject to the approval of the parliament.

Unlike many other countries, in Iran the president does not have full control over foreign policy, the armed forces, or the nuclear policy of the Iranian state, which are under the control of the Supreme Leader.

So the people may indeed have their say, but if the Supreme Leader does not concur, it is by no means guaranteed to happen. The Supreme Leader, it will be remembered, is a cleric. Ali Khamenei. The successor to the legedary Ayatollah Khomeini – and we all know how he felt about the USA. For about four hundred and fifty days back in 1978-79, a group of Americans who happened to be in the wrong Embassy at the wrong time got to hear all about it.

In Iran, the Supreme Leader is always a cleric, and always the highest power-political position in the country. Always. And what sort of reputation does the Velāyat-e faqih incumbent have? Well, let's just say if you're a fan of women's rights, public music education, gay rights, the citizenry not being beaten for disenting and freedom of the press, you're not going to be a big fan of Ali Khamenei.

But he, as it turns out, is a fan of Mahmoud I'maADinnerJacket. You are free to draw your own conclusions.

So if you really want a read on where Iran's going, then keep an eye on the clerics. They still run the show; that's not changed at all. If the reformer
Mousavi actually accords himself on his quest to have the election overturned, it still won't have happened unless the clerical caste feel that giving the people what they want would not to be counter to their own best interests.

If you want to know how change is really going to happen in Iran, keep an eye on whoever has an eye on Khamenei. At age 69, and as stubborn as those fellows get, he might have more than a few years left in him.

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

Posted by The Chinuk at June 16, 2009 01:21 AM